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Facts about the Black Saturday fires and their aftermath | |
The Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission (VBRC) reported that "In all, 2,133 houses were destroyed as a result of the January-February 2009 bushfires in Victoria. The Commission heard many accounts of people who tried to defend a well-prepared house and failed. Many of the 173 people who died as a result of the fires had been trying to defend their home, a number of which had been prepared in accordance with CFA advice." PART 1… THE IMPACT OF THE BUSHFIRE ATTACK The primary source document is the VBRC report and the research it commissioned. House destruction rate The average house loss rate within the fire area averaged 39%. One study found that there were 5375 houses within fire perimeters, of which 2118 were destroyed (= 39.4%) and 837 had minor damage. Specific areas included: The Murrundindi fire area had a total of 1064 within fire perimeter, of which 590 were destroyed (= 55%) The East Kilmore fire area had a total of 3540 total within fire perimeter, of which 1244 were destroyed (= 35%) How many houses were vacant and how many were occupied? Based on a survey of 1100 residents, 42% of properties were occupied and self defended during the bushfire attack and 58% were left vacant. We have done an independent study on the survival rate of houses under severe bushfire attack. We found good evidence for the proposition that the more houses occupied and self-defended, the higher the house survival rate. It also means the more properties left vacant, the greater the percentage of house losses. How many houses were within a Wildfire Management Overlay (WMO) and did it mitigate losses? A study of 4288 houses (1632 destroyed) looked at this aspect.  ~ 38% of houses were destroyed within the fire area … = 1632 / 4288
~ 40.3% of destroyed houses were within a WMO … = 569 / 1632
~ 32.9% of all houses within the fire area were within a WMO … = 1412 / 4288
There was no significant difference between house loss rate within and outside the WMO. The VBRC recognised the WMO as the primary planning tool for managing bushfire risk, but doubted its effectiveness because 59% of destroyed houses were not within a WMO area. How many houses met CFA design requirements and did they mitigate losses? 47 houses were referred to the CFA for inspection and conditions within the WMO, and 4 of these were destroyed … = 8.5% 51 houses were referred to the CFA for inspection and conditions within the entire fire area, and 6 of these were destroyed … = 11.7% The implication is that these percentages are well below the overall house loss rate (38 - 40%), therefore the CFA guidelines were effective. Another study by March and Scott (2010) also examined house loss performance in Wildfire Management Overlay areas in the Black Saturday fires. They found 220 houses that met recent CFA design criteria were destroyed in WMO areas. They were new houses. The loss rate for houses that met recent CFA design criteria was 11% (= 220 / 2000), which is well below the overall house loss rate in WMO areas of 40%. Therefore, they concluded that on this basis, the WMO concept was effective. Red Eagle's comment: Theoretically, they are correct, but consider the evidence again - 220 houses that were within a WMO AND met CFA design criteria did not withstand the passage of the fire. Surely, 220 losses are a bit high to support the proposition that WMO and CFA requirements are effective. Wouldn't proof of an effective protection requirement be closer to zero losses? Now look at this background note and ask … is the WMO concept effective or is something wrong? Background note: What is the WMO concept? Department of Planning and Community Development Practice Note 21 says this: The WMO identifies areas where there is the potential for loss of life and property in a 1:50 year fire scenario. Under this fire scenario, development requires special protection to WITHSTAND THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRE." This special protection includes moderating the intensity of the fire by carefully locating buildings away from vegetation, vegetation management and aiding fire suppression through the provision of water and access for emergency vehicles. How many houses met Building Commission construction standards and did they mitigate losses? The Building Commission analysed data on 2,131 destroyed buildings and found that 177 of those buildings had been required to be built in accordance with the Australian Standard for Construction of Buildings in Bushfire-prone Areas (AS 3959). The Building Commission was unable to draw any conclusions about the effectiveness of construction standards in preventing house destruction. It did not have data about how many houses survived, nor about whether houses had adequate defendable space or were actively defended. Red Eagle's comment: Consider this evidence again - 177 houses that met AS 3959 design criteria did not withstand the passage of the fire. Surely, if the design standard was effective, the loss figure should have been close to zero. Now look at this background note: is the BAL concept effective or is something wrong? Background note: What is the Building Commission's role and what is AS 3959? Building Commission Victoria practice note explains the process: In bushfire areas, residences and other specified "buildings must be designed and constructed to reduce the risk of ignition from a bushfire while the fire front passes." They require an assessment of Bushfire Attack Level (BAL) which derives from AS3959. The builder then selects materials as listed in AS 3959, for floors, walls, doors, roof, verandas, etc. the cost of materials increases as the BAL gets higher. What is AS 3959? Australian Standards is a private company that works with government regulators to define standards in many areas of the economy. Quote taken from the AS 3959: "This Standard is primarily concerned with improving the ability of buildings in designated bushfire-prone areas to better withstand attack from bushfire thus giving a measure of protection to the building occupants (until the fire front passes) as well as to the building itself. However, it continues… "the measures contained in this Standard cannot guarantee that a building will survive a bushfire event on every occasion" . What is BAL? AS 3959 defines BAL and explains a method for identifying its level within a bushfire prone area. BAL is a calculation of flame intensity using native vegetation in very flammable condition. For example, if the vegetation near your house is classified as "forest", the calculation assumes that the forest carries a very high fuel load and generates a very tall flame. Thus, the BAL is an artificial maximum intensity. It has no provision for actual fuel load, which means it has no ability to adjust for fuel bed management, which means it provides no incentive for people who practice fuel management. What is a bushfire prone area? AS 3959 defines it as an area that is subject to, or likely to be subject to, bushfire attack by burning embers, radiant heat or flame generated by a bushfire. AS 3959 defines bushfire as an unplanned fire burning in vegetation. AS 3959 defines vegetation as native vegetation, including forest, woodland, scrub, etc. NOTE: It does not include grassland, or garden beds. Deaths in Kilmore East and Murrindindi fires The author examined data about most of the deaths in these two fires. 38 properties planned to stay and defend. Investigators found their properties were well equipped and prepared in accordance with CFA literature and advice. Almost all bodies were found within the rubble of their houses 2 properties planned to stay and defend but to leave if it became too dangerous. Investigators found their properties were well equipped and prepared in accordance with CFA literature and advice. One body was found within the rubble of the house, another in the car. 15 properties planned not to stay. Investigators found their properties were generally not prepared in accordance with CFA literature and advice. Bodies were found within the rubble of their houses or on their property, in the rubble of CFA declared safe houses or in cars. On 8 properties, their intentions were unknown. Bodies were found within the rubble of their houses or on their property. PART 2… AFTERMATH OF THE BUSHFIRE ATTACK House reconstruction progress Black Saturday fires occurred on 7 Feb 2009. They destroyed over 2000 houses The following press reports indicate the painful consequences of massive house destruction 12 Sep 2009 Seven months after the Black Saturday bushfires, it's been revealed only five houses have been rebuilt. Bushfire Reconstruction and Recovery Authority chairwoman, Christine Nixon, has told ABC1's Stateline program, 800 building applications have been processed so far. "And they're principally for sheds. But there are also some houses in there across the whole of the fire affected area," she said. 31 Jan 2010 Murrundindi Shire Council has issued 227 house permits for fire-affected properties in the past 12 months. Locals say about 50 Marysville houses have been rebuilt from 418 officially lost. The maths alone explains the Marysville malaise. But the barest inspection offers more clues. There is no through traffic here. No petrol station. For six months, according to one local, not much happened at all in what was left of Marysville. Mutterings about red tape appear set to fester for months, if not years. It was almost six weeks before locals could return to the remains of the town. There was clearing to be done. Then, house plans got bogged in mooted fire safety regulations. February 04, 2010 Just under 300 rebuilding permits have been issued for houses, sheds and commercial properties in Marysville and the surrounding triangle. In the Kinglake Ranges, taking in Kinglake, Pheasant Creek and Toolangi, 361 building permits have been sought. There were 505 properties destroyed there on February 7. Locals believe as few as 50 houses are actually being rebuilt in Marysville while many permits are probably for sheds. Bushfire reconstruction spokeswoman Melissa Arch said most people applying to rebuild sheds seemed to be planning to live in them in the short term. Anecdotally, the number of people living in tents and caravans appears to have diminished significantly although there are still isolated cases across the fire zones. But progress was always going to be slow, with the rebuilding process arduous for many - particularly those who lost family or can't decide whether to face the risk of any disaster. 19 Feb 2010 Christine Nixon, chair of the Victorian Bushfire Reconstruction and Recovery Authority, said rebuilding progress to date was "about right" for the communities. She said, although there are no firm figures, about 100 of the 2,133 homes destroyed have been rebuilt, while more than 1,500 building permits have been issued. 6 Aug 2010 Eighteen months after the Black Saturday bushfires destroyed 2029 homes, only 294 have been rebuilt. RED tape and bureaucratic bungling has meant only 294 out of the 2029 homes destroyed on Black Saturday have been rebuilt and certified. February 7, 2011 LESS than half the homes destroyed in the Black Saturday bushfires - two years ago today - have been rebuilt, revealing the difficulty of renewing disaster-ravaged communities. The Victorian Bushfire Reconstruction and Recovery Authority says only 41 per cent of the 1795 principal places of residence razed by the fires have been, or are in the process of being, replaced. David Stirling, Marysville resident and chairman of the local Chamber of Commerce, said about 130 homes in Marysville are completed, in the planning stage or about to be started. Other figures, from an August survey by the Bushfire Recovery Authority of bushfire-affected communities, show 72 per cent of people had rebuilt, purchased new properties in other locations or started the rebuilding process. Another 17 per cent intended to rebuild but hadn't started the process yet and 8 per cent - many of them elderly people - had decided not to rebuild. About 4 per cent were undecided. Malcolm Hackett, a Strathewen farmer and member of the local community renewal association who is yet to rebuild his home after the fires, said about 80 residences in the area were destroyed. In Strathewen, six houses have been finished and four are close to completion. Another 10 were likely to be built this year, he said. ''There's a few people who have certainly found it difficult to remain in the community because they lost so many friends,'' he said. ''Rebuilding isn't compulsory … People come to it when they've got the emotional as well as the financial resources.'' 30 Apr 2011 Figures show private sector confidence is returning with 30 main street retail businesses expected to be opened by the end of this year, while 200 homes and 600 accommodation beds out of 1,500 pre-fire will be rebuilt by January 2012. 15 May 2011 In the temporary village on the town's outskirts, 71 people who lost their homes in the 2009 fire tragedy remain housed in small timber cabins, enduring the grindingly slow process of rebuilding. One woman, who moved into a single-bedroom cabin 14 months ago after bunking with relatives, said she was desperately waiting for the completion of her new home. "I absolutely hate it," she said. "There's no privacy and it's just depressing. I want to go home." Déjà vu Canberra fires, Feb 2003 February 24, 2004 A year after the catastrophic Canberra bushfires, only 10 per cent of the 500 houses destroyed have been rebuilt and unhappy victims have been left tens of housands of dollars out of pocket. In a warning to home owners around the country, they say the insurance industry is to blame. 18 Jan 2006 More than 90 per cent of the homes destroyed in urban Canberra have been rebuilt or are in the process thereof. | |
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